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Quarterly Market Review: Q2 2019

July 29, 2019

Why It Matters  

 

There is a Wall Street saying that says “sell in May and go away,” but that would have been a mistake this year. Everything was up in Q2 – U.S. and global stock, bond and real estate markets all posted positive returns for the quarter.
 

While that’s the headline, there’s always more to the story – and that’s why we send out our Quarterly Market Review.

 

We often tell people that an informed client is a better client – we want our clients to understand their portfolios, and have an awareness of how different market sectors are performing. While you don’t need to get into the weeds (don’t worry – we will), knowing what market returns have been helps you understand how and why your investments have performed the way they have.

 

Our Quarterly Market Reviews are intended to provide a high-level overview of world capital market performance. We always start with a global overview, then dive into the returns of stock and bond asset classes in the US and international markets. This aligns not only with how we construct portfolios, but it also illustrates the impact of globally diversified portfolios. By holding a globally diversified portfolio, investors are well positioned to seek returns wherever they occur. It’s not just geographic diversification that matters – it’s also things like sector, size of companies and perhaps most importantly, the ratio of stocks to bonds.

 

Many often refer to this as “risk tolerance” and use terms like “aggressive,” “moderate,” and “conservative,” but I think these terms often carry more baggage than they should. Yes, it is partly about one's tolerance for risk, but when we talk about risk, we aren’t talking about risk as in gambling in Vegas. We're talking more about when and how you plan to use your money, and your comfort level with volatility. If you are a long way from retirement, for example, you have time to weather any stock market storms, knowing you will greatly benefit from the overall growth of the stock market in the long term. If you are closer to retirement, you may be starting to look at your retirement savings as your future source of income, and the impact of the stock market volatility is much more tangible and impactful to your daily life.

 

All of these factors matter. Our goal is always transparency – we want you to understand your investments, and how and why they perform the way they do. The Quarterly Market Review provides a break-down of key market segment returns for the past quarter, which provides context as you look at your own investment portfolio. As you’ll notice in our meetings and conversations, we often discuss performance in relation to market indices – how the U.S. stock market performed, international stocks, U.S. bonds, etc. – and that’s why. If you ever have questions, we are always happy to discuss what this means for you and your investments.

 

Hope you all are enjoying a fun, beautiful summer!

 

Economic Indicators at a Glance

 

Below you’ll find a snapshot of some top-line economic indicators, followed by the Quarterly Market Review. 

Data source: Trading Economics. 2019.

Market Summary
Second Quarter 2019 Index Returns

 

 

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Index performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Market segment (index representation) as follows: US Stock Market (Russell 3000 Index), International Developed Stocks (MSCI World ex USA Index [net div.]), Emerging Markets (MSCI Emerging Markets Index [net div.]), Global Real Estate (S&P Global REIT Index [net div.]), US Bond Market (Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index), and Global Bond Market ex US (Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate ex-USD Bond Index [hedged to USD]). S&P data © 2019 S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, a division of S&P Global. All rights reserved. Frank Russell Company is the source and owner of the trademarks, service marks, and copyrights related to the Russell Indexes. MSCI data © MSCI 2019, all rights reserved. Bloomberg Barclays data provided by Bloomberg.

World Stock Market Performance

MSCI All Country World Index with selected headlines from Q2 2019

These headlines are not offered to explain market returns. Instead, they serve as a reminder that investors should view daily events from a long-term perspective and avoid making investment decisions based solely on the news.

 

Graph Source: MSCI ACWI Index [net div.]. MSCI data © MSCI 2019, all rights reserved.

It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Performance does not reflect the expenses associated with management of an actual portfolio.

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. 

World Asset Classes

Second Quarter 2019 Index Returns (%)

 

Equity markets around the globe posted positive returns for the quarter. Looking at broad market indices, US equities outperformed non-US developed and emerging markets during the quarter. Value stocks outperformed growth stocks in emerging markets but underperformed in developed markets, including the US. Small caps underperformed large caps in all regions. REIT indices underperformed equity market indices in both the US and non-US developed markets.

 

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Index performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. The S&P data is provided by Standard & Poor's Index Services Group. Frank Russell Company is the source and owner of the trademarks, service marks, and copyrights related to the Russell Indexes. MSCI data © MSCI 2018, all rights reserved. Dow Jones data © 2019 S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, a division of S&P Global. All rights reserved. S&P data © 2019 S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, a division of S&P Global. All rights reserved. Bloomberg Barclays data provided by Bloomberg. Treasury bills © Stocks, Bonds, Bills, and Inflation Yearbook™, Ibbotson Associates, Chicago (annually updated work by Roger G. Ibbotson and Rex A. Sinquefield).

U.S. Stocks 

Second Quarter 2019 Index Returns

 

US equities outperformed both non-US developed and emerging markets equities. Small caps underperformed large caps in the US. Value underperformed growth in the US across large and small cap stocks.

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Index performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Market segment (index representation) as follows: Marketwide (Russell 3000 Index), Large Cap (Russell 1000 Index), Large Cap Value (Russell 1000 Value Index), Large Cap Growth (Russell 1000 Growth Index), Small Cap (Russell 2000 Index), Small Cap Value (Russell 2000 Value Index), and Small Cap Growth (Russell 2000 Growth Index). World Market Cap represented by Russell 3000 Index, MSCI World ex USA IMI Index, and MSCI Emerging Markets IMI Index. Russell 3000 Index is used as the proxy for the US market. Frank Russell Company is source and owner of trademarks, service marks, and copyrights related to Russell Indexes. MSCI data © MSCI 2019, all rights reserved.​

Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs)

Second Quarter 2019 Index Returns

 

Non-US real estate investment trusts outperformed US REITs in US dollar terms.

 

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Index performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Number of REIT stocks and total value based on the two indices. All index returns are net of withholding tax on dividends. Total value of REIT stocks represented by Dow Jones US Select REIT Index and the S&P Global ex US REIT Index. Dow Jones US Select REIT Index used as proxy for the US market, and S&P Global ex US REIT Index used as proxy for the World ex US market. Dow Jones and S&P data © 2019 S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, a division of S&P Global. All rights reserved.

Select Country Performance

Second Quarter 2019 Index Returns

 

In US dollar terms, Switzerland and Germany recorded the highest country performance in developed markets, while Hong Kong and Japan posted the lowest returns for the quarter. There was a wide dispersion in returns across emerging markets. Greece recorded the highest country performance with a gain of 23%, while Pakistan posted the lowest performance, declining 21%.

 

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Index performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Country performance based on respective indices in the MSCI World ex US IMI Index (for developed markets), MSCI USA IMI Index (for US), and MSCI Emerging Markets IMI Index. All returns in USD and net of withholding tax on dividends. MSCI data © MSCI 2019, all rights reserved. UAE and Qatar have been reclassified as emerging markets by MSCI, effective May 2014.

Fixed Income

Second Quarter 2019 Index Returns

 

Interest rates decreased in the US Treasury fixed income market during the second quarter. The yield on the 5-year Treasury note declined by 47 basis points (bps), ending at 1.76%. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note fell by 41 bps to 2.00%. The 30-year Treasury bond yield decreased by 29 bps to finish at 2.52%.

 

On the short end of the curve, the 1-month Treasury bill yield decreased to 2.18%, while the 1-year T-bill yield decreased by 48 bps to 1.92%. The 2-year T-note yield finished at 1.75%, decreasing 52 bps.

In terms of total returns, short-term corporate bonds increased by 2.09%. Intermediate-term corporate bonds had a total return of 3.13%.

 

The total return for short-term municipal bonds was 1.12%, while intermediate munis returned 1.98%. Revenue bonds outperformed general obligation bonds.

 

 

  

 

 One basis point equals 0.01%. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Index performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Yield curve data from Federal Reserve. State and local bonds are from the S&P National AMT-Free Municipal Bond Index. AAA-AA Corporates represent the ICE BofAML US Corporates, AA-AAA rated. A-BBB Corporates represent the ICE BofAML US Corporates, BBB-A rated. Bloomberg Barclays data provided by Bloomberg. US long-term bonds, bills, inflation, and fixed income factor data © Stocks, Bonds, Bills, and Inflation (SBBI) Yearbook™, Ibbotson Associates, Chicago (annually updated work by Roger G. Ibbotson and Rex A. Sinquefield). FTSE fixed income indices © 2019 FTSE Fixed Income LLC, all rights reserved. ICE BofAML index data © 2019 ICE Data Indices, LLC. S&P data © 2019 S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, a division of S&P Global. All rights reserved. 

This report was prepared by Gregory Saliba.

 

 

Gregory Saliba

President, Taurus Capital Management

saliba@tauruscap.com

(503) 756-2972

 

 

 

 

20+ years in Corporate Finance, Debt Capital Markets and Investment Management

2010 Oregon Ethics in Business Award Recipient

Public Speaker on Risk, Behavioral Finance and Ethics

Finance Faculty Member (12+ years)

  • Willamette University, Atkinson Graduate School of Management

  • Portland State University, School of Business Administration

Extensive Community Involvement

 

 

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